By Mikayla van Loon
The Casey federal election for 2025 is fielding a candidate pool of eight contenders, some returning to the ballot but most are new faces in the race for MP.
Casey’s ballot is also sporting the highest rate of female candidates since 2016, when three of the six (50 per cent) candidates were women.
For 2025, five of the eight candidates are women (62.5 per cent).
Compared to 2022 and 2019, which saw 11 and 10 candidates run respectively, this year is seeing a lesser number of eight join the contest, from all parts of the political spectrum.
Returning faces include incumbent Liberal MP Aaron Violi and Independent Claire Ferres-Miles, while Labor’s Naomi Oakley is no stranger to the election system having run in Menzies in 2022.
Previous elections also provide extensive insight into which suburbs are most likely to vote one way or another.
Typically the Liberal Party fares well in the urban centres, Yarra Valley and Upper Yarra, while Labor holds much of the Hills region but some outliers did occur in 2022.
In the Upper Yarra, while the Liberals pulled the majority of the two party preferred vote in 2022, sitting between 50 and 55 per cent, in Wesburn, Wandin, Woori Yallock, Seville, Yarra Junction, Gladysdale, Launching Place and Hoddles Creek, the outliers of Millgrove (55 per cent) and Warburton (63 per cent) backed Labor candidate Bill Brindle.
In the Valley, while places like Healesville and Badger Creek leaned towards Liberal in first preference votes, after the preferential distribution, seeing the Greens and Independent poll well, the townships swung red.
Much of the Hills region supported Labor barring Macclesfield and Silvan who voted blue.
The Greens and Independent Claire Ferres-Miles garnered the biggest percentages of votes in the Dandenong Ranges, with suburbs like Ferny Creek, Selby, Sassafras and The Patch leading this.
The rest of the Hillside suburbs, like Upwey, Belgrave, Tecoma and Kallista saw Bill Brindle haul the majority of the vote of 25 to 30 per cent.
The urban areas, from Coldstream, Lilydale, Montrose, Mount Evelyn and Chirnside Park, have previously voted strongly for the Liberal Party.
With experts suggesting a minority government may be possible, as voters turn away from the major party system, this election will be a watch and see scenario.
