The spring outlook for bushfires in Australia has been released, and while the forecast may change for some areas, preparation is key for the months ahead.
Across the Yarra Ranges, the predicted fire season ahead has been deemed ‘normal’ but remains quite dependent on rainfall in the next month, and local CFA are urging residents to get prepared.
The Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) released the seasonal bushfire outlook for Victoria on Wednesday 27 August.
AFAC CEO Rob Webb said no matter where you live or travel this season, everyone can play an important role in bushfire safety this spring by being prepared and staying alert to warnings and advice.
“Having a plan doesn’t take long and might just make the difference,” he said.
Developed by AFAC on a quarterly basis, the spring outlook report gives a national snapshot of the likelihood of fires over the spring months.
Sassafras-Ferny Creek fire brigade president, John Schauble, said that what happens in spring, pretty much over the next six to eight weeks, will be crucial in determining the bushfire risk in the Dandenongs over summer.
“There’s really little point in comparing this year with previous years leading into bad bushfire events,” he said.
“When you live in a high bushfire risk area such as the Dandenongs, it’s more a case of this year being the worst year since last year.”
The report states that across much of eastern Victoria, the fire risk potential has been assessed as normal due to higher landscape moisture.
Moving into to Yarra Valley, Coldstream CFA Captain Sean Bethell said their brigade is waiting to see what the spring rains do.
“If we don’t get the expected rain that we usually get, we could be in for a hot, dry and long summer,” he said.
Macclesfield CFA Captain Sharon Merritt said the rainfall in Macclesfield has been over 100mm less than the same time last year.
“This low rainfall and higher daytime temperatures have led to a significant increase in soil dryness, “ she said.
“We may get a wet spring, which will alleviate some of this dryness, but it will take the soil quite some time and a large amount of rain to recover.”
“If the soil remains dry, this will dry the surface leaf litter out quickly over summer and increase the chances of fire spreading quickly across the landscape.”
Senior Meteorologist Angus Hines said in a forecast delivered by the BOM on Thursday 28 August that spring in Victoria will likely deliver above average rainfall for much of the state, apart from some eastern parts.
“Average spring rainfall in recent decades has been between 100 and 300 millimetres for much of the state, 400 millimetres over the Great Dividing Range, and between 50 and 100 millimetres in the north west corner,” he said.
Mr Schauble said that the accumulated rainfall is a key factor in suppressing fire risk in forested areas such as the hills.
“Over the previous five years, we’ve had well above average rainfall,” he said.
“But this year the rainfall to date is notably down, despite a very cold winter.”
Statewide, there is a bigger risk of fire predicted for drought-affected areas, after a record-lows of rain in the last 18 months.
Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch said that emergency services are well prepared.
“Communities need to understand their local risks and prepare early, including how to access emergency information and warnings,” he said.
“Download the VicEmergency app to check the Fire Danger Ratings and receive vital emergency information, tune into your local emergency broadcaster and never rely on one source of information.”
Victoria State Emergency Service, State Agency Commander Aaron White said that Victorians are also at risk from severe weather, including damaging winds, and flash flooding.
“These hazards can impact communities quickly and with little warning,” he said.
“VICSES volunteers are ready to respond to severe weather events, but preparedness is a shared responsibility, we urge all Victorians to take steps now to prepare their homes and families for all types of emergencies.”
The rainfall levels will make all the difference as spring begins in earnest in the next month.
If there is less rain, then areas like the Dandenong Ranges may change status quite quickly to an above-average fire potential.
“Monitoring of rainfall and fuel conditions will occur throughout spring to identify key risk areas leading into the summer period,” said the report.
The focus will now be on preparation and monitoring, and CFA are encouraging locals to get prepped and informed.
“Rainfall is predicted to be fairly normal in September and October at this stage, but regardless of whether we have a wet spring or not, we will still have fires over summer,” said Ms Merritt.
“I guess for some people, the lack of bushfire activity locally in recent years has led to a degree of complacency,” said Mr Schauble.
“That nasty little fire in Montrose last March was a sharp reminder of how quickly conditions can change, it was also a reminder that fires don’t have to be big to do significant damage here,” he said.
“Don’t leave it too late to prepare your property,” said Ms Merritt.
Olinda Rural Fire Brigade Captain, Deb Weber said as with all other brigades across the Dandenong Ranges, they are concentrating on polishing their minimum firefighting skills.
“We are also preparing for our station Open Day on 11 October, where we hope to reiterate CFA’s message to our local community to ensure they prepare their properties early and have a well-thought-out plan for their family and pets when conditions reach their trigger points to act,” she said.
“Local brigades are always happy to assist with fire planning information.”
In Coldstream, Mr Bethell said their brigade is actively recruiting for new firefighters.
“Especially those available during daytime hours,” he said.
Mr Schauble said everyone needs to be preparing now for the fire danger period to come.
“Develop a plan for what your family will do on high fire danger days, clean up around your property and do any necessary maintenance work on your home,” he said.
“Now is the best time to start preparing your properties for summer by clearing up fine fuels (fine vegetation and leaf litter) from around houses,” said Ms Merritt.
Mr Schauble said that as summer gets closer, people can make sure to attend a CFA community meeting to learn more about the local conditions and get some basic bushfire safety tips.
“Your local brigade can help with information and there’s loads online at www.cfa.vic.gov.au/prepare,” he said.
Residents can also stay informed by downloading the VicEmergency app or checking the VicEmergency website.
